This is Post number 5 of the series through which I am developing the topic of the New Paradigm of Human Walking in the future, which will be 9 in total.
In order to continue configuring its guidelines, its structure, the content, the characteristics and other aspects that will lead us to define the NEW PARADIGM OF WALKING, we will proceed to explain and define the phases that we must address in the coming months to achieve it, results that we will execute and show in the following posts of this series, and according to how we progress over time.
Since its origins, Humanity has gone through various historical stages, taking into account its natural activity of walking on the earth’s surface, namely:
GREAT STAGES WHICH HUMANITY HAS THROUGH IN RELATION TO WALKING
These stages reflect the evolution of the role of walking in human history, from its vital importance in nomadic societies to its rediscovery as an activity beneficial for health and the environment today.
1. Nomadism: At this stage, human beings were nomadic and constantly moved in search of food and shelter. Walking was essential for their survival and was done over long distances following migratory routes of animals and natural resources.
2. Sedentary lifestyle: With the development of domestication of agricultural products and animals, human beings began to settle in fixed places to cultivate the land and raise animals. Small human communities began to emerge scattered in the countryside. Although walking was still necessary for agricultural and transportation tasks, mobility decreased compared to nomadism.
3. Development of roads and trade routes: Over time, roads and trade routes were developed that connected different communities and regions, facilitating the exchange of goods and knowledge. Walking became an important economic activity and infrastructure was developed to improve mobility and connect communities dispersed in the countryside.
4. Urbanization and concentration in cities: With the emergence of urban civilizations, the population moved from the countryside to the city. Large masses of individuals were concentrated in hundreds of cities, where walking was the main means of transportation. These urban centers were built by providing them with urban equipment, such as the development of streets, sidewalks, etc., to facilitate pedestrian mobility.
5. Industrialization and motorized transportation: With the Industrial Revolution, motorized transportation emerged, which reduced dependence on walking as the main means of transportation in cities. However, walking was still important for short distances and recreational activities.
6. Megalopolis. The Great Metropolises began to emerge, starting in the 19th century but especially in the 20th century.
7. STAGE IN POSSIBLE APPEARANCE. Rediscovery of walking and sustainable mobility: In more recent times, there has been a rediscovery of walking as a healthy, sustainable and economical way of transportation (moving) Policies and projects have been promoted to encourage pedestrian mobility and create more walkable environments in cities.
8. STAGE IN POSSIBLE APPEARANCE. Return to the countryside: Mobility and migration of human groups settled in cities to the countryside (rural areas).
Taking into consideration this process of Humanity that has lasted around 2 million years, we must now define certain theses regarding the last 2 stages, which are probable, and taking the following points as a guide, to corroborate and quantify them through research that let’s do in the coming years:
1. Requirement for a future predictive study
2. Behavior patterns
3. Urban Perspective
4. Determination of repetitive walking patterns (individuals, groups, in the countryside, in the city, etc.)
5. Trends of human groups in terms of walking (within a period of 50 years)
6. Prediction of human behaviors regarding Walking. I) Regarding the most important general characteristics that must be considered; II) In terms of 20 and 50 years.
1.-REQUIREMENT OF A PREDICTIVE STUDY FOR THE FUTURE
To achieve the final objective, which is to define the new paradigm of walking, it is necessary to carry out a future predictive study on this topic, through attention to and compliance with the following requirements:
1. Trend analysis: Identify current trends in the field of walking, including emerging technologies, lifestyle changes, and urban and environmental developments.
2. Behavior study: Investigate current walking-related behaviors, such as frequency, duration, motivations, and preferences of people when walking.
3. Needs assessment: Identify people’s current and future needs in relation to walking, including aspects of health, accessibility, safety and comfort.
4. Socioeconomic impact: Evaluate the socioeconomic impact of walking in different contexts, considering aspects such as mobility, sustainability and quality of life.
5. Technologies and tools: Identify technologies and tools available or in development that can influence walking, such as tracking devices, mobile applications, and intelligent transportation systems.
6. Interdisciplinary collaboration: Encourage collaboration between different disciplines, such as health, engineering, architecture and sociology, to comprehensively address the various aspects of walking.
7. Consideration of diversity: Recognize the diversity of people in terms of physical, cultural and socioeconomic abilities, and how this influences their walking experiences.
8. Long-term vision: Have a long-term vision that considers demographic, technological and environmental changes that may influence walking in the future.
Strict satisfaction of these requirements will help design the predictive study that allows us to outline a new walking paradigm that is inclusive, sustainable and beneficial for Humanity as a whole.
2.-BEHAVIOR PATTERNS
Behavior patterns that must be analyzed for any predictive study.
Behavioral patterns are the trends or regularities in the actions, decisions or interactions of people in different contexts. For a predictive study, it is essential to analyze the following aspects of behavioral patterns:
1. Frequency: The number of times an action is performed or a behavior is manifested in a given period of time.
2. Duration: The length of time a specific behavior or action lasts.
3. Intensity: The degree or level of energy, effort, or emotion invested in a behavior.
4. Variability: The diversity or change in behaviors over time or in different situations.
5. Cyclicity: The repetition of patterns or sequences of behavior in predictable periods.
6. Context: The environmental, social, cultural or situational factors that influence behaviors.
7. Motivations: The needs, desires or goals that drive behaviors.
8. Consequences: The results or effects that behaviors have, both in the short and long term.
9. Adaptability: The ability of behaviors to adjust to changes in the environment or circumstances.
10. Interactions: The relationships and connections between different behaviors, people or elements of the environment.
Analyzing these behavioral patterns allows us to better understand how people act in different situations and how those behaviors may change or evolve in the future. This is essential for making accurate and informed predictions in predictive studies.
3.-URBAN PLANNING PERSPECTIVE
Now, let’s proceed to define the urban perspective within the future Walking Paradigm.
We have already outlined part of this perspective in Posts THE WALK-RWD SYSTEM AND THE INTERDICIPLINARY FLOW OF IDEAS. PART II of IX, and WALKING: A NECESSARY DISCIPLINARY HYBRIDIZATION. PART III OF IX, and we will only focus on the conclusions regarding our predictions in this discipline, repeating the most outstanding arguments that we have supported in these two previous posts.
URBANISM will be correlated with some related disciplines, such as SOCIOLOGY, PHYSOLOGY, ANATOMY, or some subdiscipline or disciplinary fragment of them; whether they are oriented towards walking or related to the human being’s walk towards the future.
Hybrid bridges of new disciplinary approaches must be built with the aim of achieving the relationship between the participating correlated disciplines and reaching the hybrid proposal that solves and gives direction to the new paradigm of the human being’s walk in the future.
These bridges will allow a hybridization of disciplines or a fragmentation of urbanism; That is, it is possible that this bridge results in the creation of a new discipline as the sum of several specialties from other disciplines, or as the sum of other new hybrid domains.
Surely in the Domain of Urbanism we will find the sub-discipline that will have the greatest influence in promoting and conducting hybridization – with other disciplines and sciences – in order to revolutionize the multidisciplinary offer, to respond to the new needs of human beings in their journey. , for the future.
Now, what urban perspective should experts consider to make way for the new hybrid discipline?
Firstly, the tendency of Humanity to concentrate in cities must be carefully quantified and defined, according to the statistics on this urban concentration, stratified by city sizes. The statistical analysis must cover a period of years large enough to quantify the trends at the different levels that are defined. The perspective of Humanity towards the future, with respect to the same concentration variable, must be at least 50 years.
Secondly, the new physical and natural scenarios that will open up, in the same 50-year survey, must be explored, investigated and defined to accommodate that part of the population that will not go to the cities, and that will take refuge in those different living environments.
Thirdly, the other disciplines and sub-disciplines that manifest their flows of ideas and theoretical and practical models will have to be defined, to form the entire context of the new hybrid discipline.
Any configuration will have to be resolved in different stages and modulations; that is, over a period of time and through various direct communication mechanisms, whether through symposiums, formal meetings, special meetings, congresses, conferences, etc.
Based on what was stated in the 2 previous posts belonging to this series regarding hybridization and the definition of the new paradigm of walking, we arrive at the following predictions regarding what urbanism should contribute:
4.-DETERMINATION OF REPETITIVE WALKING PATTERNS (INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE, GROUPS, IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, IN THE CITY, ETC.)
To determine the repetitive patterns of walking in different contexts and groups of people, the following strategies and technologies were taken into account:
a) Individuals:
• Tracking devices: Use devices such as pedometers or mobile applications that record the distance, time and speed of each step.
• Video analysis: Employ video analysis techniques to study the biomechanics and movement patterns of each individual.
b) Social groups:
• Surveys and countryside (rural areas) studies: Conduct surveys and observations in different environments to identify the walking patterns of specific groups, such as people with disabilities, children, older adults, etc.
• Participatory mapping: Involve social groups in identifying and mapping walking routes and points of interest in their environment.
c) In the countryside (rural areas):
• GPS and GIS: Use GPS and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to map and analyze walking patterns in rural environments.
• Ethnographic studies: Conduct ethnographic studies to understand cultural and traditional walking patterns in rural communities.
d) In the city:
• Urban sensors: Install sensors in urban areas to collect data on pedestrian movement and walking patterns.
• Transportation data analysis: Use public and private transportation data to infer walking patterns in different types of cities.
These strategies and technologies can help you determine repetitive walking patterns in various contexts and social groups, allowing you to design more effective interventions and policies to promote sustainable and healthy mobility.
5.-TRENDS OF HUMAN GROUPS REGARDING WALKING (WITHIN 20-50 YEARS)
Some current trends and possible future evolutions in terms of walking, with a horizon of 20 and 50 years, to improve this activity in architectural and urban areas:
Current trends (20 years):
1. Pedestrian infrastructure: Greater investment in wide, safe and accessible sidewalks, with inclusive design for people with reduced mobility.
2. Green spaces: Greater integration of green areas and parks in urban environments, promoting attractive and healthy pedestrian paths.
3. Active mobility: Promotion of policies and programs that promote active mobility, such as walking and cycling, as alternatives to using the car.
4. Wearable technology: Increased use of wearable technology to track and enhance the walking experience, including physical activity tracking devices and augmented reality for navigation.
5. People-centered urban planning: Focus on urban design centered on the needs of people, with well-designed pedestrian streets, plazas and community spaces.
Future trends (50 years):
1. Walkable cities: Greater expansion of walkable cities, where traveling on foot is the most convenient and pleasant option.
2. Smart infrastructure: Integration of smart technologies into pedestrian infrastructure, such as smart traffic lights and dynamic signage.
3. Interconnected roads: Development of networks of interconnected roads that facilitate travel on foot between different areas of the city.
4. Biomimetic design: Use of biomimetic principles in urban design, inspired by nature to create healthier and more sustainable environments.
5. Culture of walking: Greater awareness and appreciation for the activity of walking, with educational and cultural programs that promote its benefits.
These trends suggest a future where walking becomes a central activity in urban design, promoting health, sustainability and quality of life in cities.
6.-PREDICTION OF HUMAN BEHAVIORS REGARDING WALKING.
6.I) REGARDING THE MOST IMPORTANT GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
The prediction of future human behaviors regarding walking will be influenced by several important characteristics that must be considered in order not to fail regarding the future legal provisions that must be included in the New Walking Paradigm, namely:
1. Collaboration and citizen participation: Greater collaboration and citizen participation in urban planning related to walking is expected, which will require legal provisions that promote public consultation and community participation in decision-making.
2. Road safety: There will be an increased demand for pedestrian road safety measures, such as safe pedestrian crossings, adequate signage and reduced traffic speeds, which will require stricter regulations and their effective enforcement.
3. Right to public space: Greater recognition of pedestrians’ right to public space is expected, which will involve the implementation of regulations that limit motor vehicle access in certain areas and promote the creation of pedestrian zones.
4. Shared responsibility: Future walking behaviors will be more oriented towards shared responsibility between pedestrians, drivers and authorities, which will require legal provisions that promote mutual respect and peaceful coexistence in public spaces.
5. Flexibility and adaptability: Regulations related to walking must be flexible and adaptable to changes in society and technology, in order to respond effectively to the needs and demands of the constantly evolving population.
These characteristics are fundamental for the design of legal provisions that promote walking as a safe, healthy and sustainable activity in the future, thus contributing to the creation of more livable and pedestrian-friendly urban environments (Future Post PROVISIONS AND REGULATIONS IN THE NEW WALKING PARADIGM. PART VIII of IX).
6.II) PREDICTION ON THE REDISCOVERY OF WALKING AND ON THE RETURN TO THE COUNTRYSIDE (RURAL AREAS)
In the next 20 and 50 years, the stage of rediscovery of walking and the promotion of sustainable mobility (Stage 7) and the Return to the Countryside (Stage 8) could develop as follows:
NEXT 20 YEARS:
A) IN THE CITIES
1. Improved pedestrian infrastructure: Greater investment is expected in wide, safe and accessible sidewalks, as well as in the creation of pedestrian zones and shared streets in cities.
2. Technology for pedestrian mobility: Mobile applications and wearable devices that encourage walking will be developed and popularized, providing information on safe, healthy and attractive routes.
3. Pedestrian-friendly urban policies: Cities will adopt policies that prioritize walking, such as implementing low-emission zones and restricting motor vehicle access in urban areas.
4. Culture of active mobility: Greater awareness of the health and environmental benefits of walking will be promoted, promoting educational programs and awareness campaigns.
5. Integration with other modes of transportation: Connections between walking and other modes of public transportation, such as buses, trains and bicycles, will be improved, facilitating multimodal travel.
B) IN THE COUNTRYSIDE (RURAL AREAS)
New planning should be carried out in the countryside (rural areas), focusing on walking as a fundamental means of transportation.
To plan these imminent long-term migrations of human groups to rural areas, with walking as a fundamental activity, it is necessary to consider the following essential aspects at an international and global level.
i) Technical, economic and social policies:
• Establish tax incentives for companies that establish themselves in rural areas, creating employment and reducing migration.
• Implement comprehensive rural development programs that include access to basic services such as health and education.
ii) Technical, economic and social guidelines:
• Create investment funds for pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure projects in rural areas.
• Establish efficient and accessible rural public transportation systems to reduce automobile dependency.
iii) Urban structure and environment:
• Design rural communities with sustainable infrastructure and green spaces that encourage walking and outdoor living.
• Implement environmental protection and natural resource management policies in rural areas.
iv) Characteristics to consider about Artificial Intelligence:
• Use AI systems to optimize pedestrian and bicycle routes, guaranteeing the safety and efficiency of non-motorized transportation.
• Implement AI-based environmental monitoring technologies to preserve biodiversity and natural resources in rural areas.
v) Legal regulations on technological and social aspects of walking:
• Establish regulations that regulate the use of autonomous vehicles in rural areas, prioritizing the safety of pedestrians and cyclists.
• Implement laws that promote shared responsibility for road safety, involving drivers, cyclists and pedestrians.
vi) Other relevant aspects:
• Promote the creation of networks of trails and pedestrian tourist routes that promote sustainable tourism in rural areas.
• Promote local production and consumption to strengthen the rural economy and reduce the carbon footprint associated with food transportation.
Of course, each region in the world and each country must carry out specific planning that will require a detailed analysis of each particular case, but always respecting global policies and guidelines.
These proposals are intended to promote balanced and sustainable rural development, where walking is a central activity in people’s daily lives.
NEXT 50 YEARS:
A) IN THE CITIES
1. Completely walkable cities: Cities are expected to be designed primarily for pedestrians, with urban infrastructure that prioritizes walking over other modes of transportation.
2. Advanced technology for pedestrian mobility: Advanced technologies, such as augmented reality systems and intelligent personal assistants, will be developed to improve the walking experience and safety of pedestrians.
3. Integrated urban policies: Cities will implement comprehensive policies that promote sustainable mobility, including the creation of green spaces and the reduction of motorized traffic.
4. Cultural shift towards active mobility: Walking will become the dominant form of travel in cities, with an ingrained culture of active and healthy mobility.
5. Revaluation of public space: Priority will be given to public space for pedestrians, with streets, squares and parks designed to promote social interaction and the well-being of the community.
B) IN THE COUNTRYSIDE (RURAL AREAS)
New planning should be carried out in the countryside (rural areas), focusing on walking as a fundamental means of transportation.
In the same way as within 20 years, we must make plans to guide imminent migrations towards rural areas that contemplate the following core aspects, at a widespread level in the countryside.
i) Technical, economic and social policies:
• Promote economic incentives for rural life, such as subsidies for housing and basic services.
• Implement training and employment programs in rural areas to guarantee the labor integration of migrants.
• Develop rural public transportation policies that encourage the use of walking and cycling.
ii) Technical, economic and social guidelines:
• Promote economic diversification in rural areas to create employment opportunities.
• Establish regulations for the construction of safe and accessible pedestrian infrastructure.
iii) Urban structure and environment:
• Design compact, walkable rural communities that encourage social interaction and physical activity.
• Implement sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural practices.
iv) Characteristics to consider about Artificial Intelligence:
• Implement AI technologies to improve the efficiency of rural public transportation and pedestrian safety.
• Use AI to predict migration patterns and plan rural development in advance.
v) Legal regulations on technological and social aspects of walking:
• Establish regulations that protect pedestrians and promote road safety in rural areas.
• Regulate the use of personal mobility technologies, such as electric scooters, to guarantee coexistence with pedestrians.
vi) Other relevant aspects:
• Promote road safety education and awareness about the benefits of walking for health and the environment.
• Promote community participation in the planning and design of walkable public spaces.
Notwithstanding these constructive ideas of a new model of habitability and “walkability” in rural areas, each region and country must carry out specific planning that will require a detailed analysis of each local and regional context.
These action formulas for the generation of new plans (recommendation meditations reflections contemplations speculations) suggest a future where walking becomes the main mobility activity both in cities and in the countryside, promoting health, sustainability and quality of life of citizens.
DESIGN OF VARIOUS THESES BASED ON THESE ASSUMPTIONS, IN ORDER TO PROCEED TO CARRY OUT THE DEFINITIVE PREDICTIVE STUDY
In the immediate future we will propose several theses taking into consideration what has been determined about walking patterns in order to carry out the definitive predictive study and validation of the same theses and the assumptions that we have made for the next 20-50 years, both in cities as in the countryside.
Let’s think of a new conformation for the COUNTRYSIDE (RURAL AREAS) of the future. In the meantime, let’s walk every day.